BATTERIES: GOOD SERVANT, BAD MASTER

As the western world tries to figure out how to reduce its fossil fuel energy-dependence and move towards a future based on renewable energy, we need to avoid creating the same problem in a different guise. For example, it really wouldn’t make sense to move from dependence on Russian gas to dependence on a few critical minerals required for vast numbers of battery electric vehicles.

Battery Costs Rose 10% in 2021

Already, we are seeing the first warning signs. According to a recent Financial Times report, the cost of EV batteries rose by 10% last year because of the rising prices of the commodities needed to manufacture them – principally, lithium, cobalt and nickel. That somewhat undermines the argument that, like microchips, batteries will get inexorably cheaper year-by-year.

Global Lithium Demand for EV Batteries is Rising

Of course, supply could grow faster than demand, bringing the prices of raw materials back down, but a look at the figures suggest that will be difficult. According to the UK’s Faraday Institution, (Faraday Insights - Issue 6 Update: December 2020, ‘Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel: The Gold Rush of the 21st Century’), the leading EV battery research centre, global annual demand for lithium for EV batteries will rise from under 100,000 tonnes today to 2.5 million tonnes by 2035. That means a large number of new mines – and few people want a mine next to their home. The USA, in particular, has huge lithium reserves, but it is unclear how much of that can be exploited against the wishes of local neighbourhoods.

Quite how much environmental damage is done by lithium mining is fiercely debated. However, it is unarguable that most lithium currently comes from some of the driest places on earth (unsurprising, given that it is generally found in salt flats) and large amounts of water are needed to pump out the underground lithium– according to the UN “In Chile’s Salar de Atacama, lithium and other mining activities consumed 65% of the water.”

We Must Use Raw Materials (and Therefore Batteries) Selectively

Given that lithium and other battery chemicals are a finite resource, with serious environmental issues, it would make sense to use batteries selectively. That is not to suggest we continue using hydrocarbons – CO2 emissions from transport simply must be stopped. However, batteries are not equally suitable for all types of vehicle.

We believe that current developments further strengthen our argument that batteries are fine for small-ish EVs that don’t need a huge range. For larger vehicles – especially large trucks, batteries are looking ever less attractive. Imagine what would happen to the price of battery materials if every articulated truck had to be fitted with a battery pack of 500KWH-1000KWH. As the price of hydrogen falls steadily, it makes more sense to use hydrogen fuel cells for vehicles that need large amounts of electrical power. Hydrogen has two further advantages from an environmental point of view: as the most abundant substance in the universe, it will never run out, and, so long it is made from renewable electricity, the environmental impact of its production is negligible compared to the impact of mineral mining.

Imagine what would happen to the price of lithium if every articulated truck had to be fitted with a battery pack of 500KWH-1000KWH.

The market will eventually decide where the dividing line comes between battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Below 50KWH, batteries probably make more sense, and much above 100 KWH, fuel cells are an increasingly efficient solution.

The World Needs A Mix of Solutions

We are not against batteries: indeed a fuel-cell vehicle needs batteries as part of the powertrain. However, we think that putting all our eggs in one basket risks repeating the mistakes of the past. We believe batteries should be part of the solution, rather than being treated as the whole solution. Indeed, we are learning the hard way that there is no one solution when it comes to energy. We need to create a mix of solutions, finding the most appropriate answer for each application. When asked “What is the future of energy for transport”, the first response is, “There is no one answer.”

We’d love to hear what you think, get in touch info@viritech.co.uk

#hydrogenpowertrains #FCEV #hydrogenHGV #cleantech